59 h. ago Is a US recession on the horizon amid Trump’s tariffs? | Jeffrey Frankel

Expectations that the Fed will cut short-term interest rates and falling consumer confidence could indicate what is aheadImagine you are sailing a ship through dense fog, looking out for land. Your lookout spots species of birds typically found offshore. It now seems likely that you are approaching land, but it is impossible to know for sure until you see the coastline. If a US recession is land, the “birds” are already swooping into view. But these sightings offer no guarantees of what lies ahead, only probabilities.An inverted yield curve, when the long-term interest rate falls to or below the short-term rate, is commonly considered to be a predictor of recession. The 10-year bond rate did fall below the three-month Treasury rate in March, although the two are now at about the same level. In any case, the yield curve does not actually tell us much. It simply reflects financial market expectations that the US Federal Reserve might cut short-term interest rates in the future, which ...

Politics

3 d. ago The Guardian view on the IMF’s warning: Donald Trump could cost the world a trillion dollars | Editorial

The US president’s economic agenda collides with fragile financial systems, triggering market fears, investor flight and developing nation chaosWake up! When the most sober of global institutions, the International Monetary Fund, abandons its usual technocratic calm to sound the alarm on the political roots of global financial instability, it’s time to pay attention. The IMF is warning of a non-negligible risk of a $1tn hit to global output, as Donald Trump’s erratic “America first” agenda – part oligarchic enrichment scheme, part mobster shakedown – collides with a perfect storm of global financial vulnerabilities.Such a shock would be equivalent to a third of that experienced in the 2008 crisis. But it would be felt in a much more fragile and politically charged environment. This time, the crisis stems not just from markets but from the politics at the heart of the dollar system. The IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report sees the danger in Mr Trump’s trade ...

Events

3 d. ago Even Trump must know that firing the chair of the Fed would be self

Jerome Powell is a soft target for the president amid economic instability. But getting rid of him would only invite more chaosUS stock markets, Treasury bonds and the dollar itself are sliding amid the tariff turmoil and Donald Trump needs a soft target. It was probably only a matter of time before he intensified his attacks on Jerome Powell, chair of the US Federal Reserve. It is an easy narrative to blame the dull central banker with orthodox worries about anchoring inflation expectations. Nor is Powell able to engage in tit-for-tat soundbites. Unlike Trump, he must measure the impact on markets of his every word.The open question is how far Trump intends to push things. Monday’s reaction in financial markets was strong because it seemed for the first time that the president could be serious about removal. “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” declared Trump, which was several notches beyond his usual whine about urging the Fed to hurry up with cuts in interest rates. C...

Politics

4 d. ago Risks to global financial stability surging after Trump tariffs, warns IMF

World body says ‘sharp repricing of risks’ possible amid growing concern over role of ‘nonbank’ lendersIMF warns of ‘major negative shock’ from Trump’s tariffsEditorial: Donald Trump could cost the world $1tnThe global financial system is coming under increasing strain as Donald Trump’s trade war rocks markets, the International Monetary Fund has warned.“Global financial stability risks have increased significantly,” the IMF said in its regular snapshot of the system, urging regulators to be on the alert for potential crises. Continue reading...

Events

6 d. ago Another crisis, another IMF summit: but unlike 2008, the delegates are disunited

Where once the world came together to fight the credit crunch, Trump’s tariffs will set a more divisive testWhen the world’s finance ministers and central bank governors gather at the International Monetary Fund in Washington this week, it may kindle memories of another meeting, also held against the backdrop of a global economic crisis, in autumn 2008.Then, as the aftershocks from the collapse of Lehman Brothers ripped through financial markets, central banks coordinated drastic emergency rate cuts, and the UK chancellor, Alistair Darling, urged his G7 counterparts to emulate the UK’s approach and shore up stricken banks. Continue reading...

Politics

9 d. ago Global economic growth will slow amid Trump tariffs, IMF warns – as it happened

Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as ECB reduces main interest rate from 2.5% to 2.25%, the seventh cut in a yearTrump attacks Fed chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest ratesECB cuts rates for third time this year as Europe braces for Trump tariffsDonald Trump is awake. And he has strongly criticised monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, saying the end of Jerome Powell’s tenure as chair “cannot come fast enough”.In a post on Truth Social, the social network he owns, Trump said that Powell had been too slow to cut interest rates – contrasting its hesistance because of perceived inflationary pressures with the European Central Bank (ECB).The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. ...

Events

9 d. ago Global economic growth will slow amid Trump tariffs, IMF warns – business live

Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as ECB reduces main interest rate from 2.5% to 2.25%, the seventh cut in a yearTrump attacks Fed chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest ratesECB cuts rates for third time this year as Europe braces for Trump tariffsDonald Trump is awake. And he has strongly criticised monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, saying the end of Jerome Powell’s tenure as chair “cannot come fast enough”.In a post on Truth Social, the social network he owns, Trump said that Powell had been too slow to cut interest rates – contrasting its hesistance because of perceived inflationary pressures with the European Central Bank (ECB).The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. ...

Economics

9 d. ago Donald Trump criticises Federal Reserve chair as European Central Bank cuts interest rates – business live

Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as ECB reduces main interest rate from 2.5% to 2.25%, the seventh cut in a yearDonald Trump is awake. And he has strongly criticised monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, saying the end of Jerome Powell’s tenure as chair “cannot come fast enough”.In a post on Truth Social, the social network he owns, Trump said that Powell had been too slow to cut interest rates – contrasting its hesistance because of perceived inflationary pressures with the European Central Bank (ECB).The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late should have lowered Interest Rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. Powell’s termination cannot come f...

Politics

9 d. ago Nvidia boss visits China days after Donald Trump limits AI chip exports – business live

Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as Chinese state media publishes photo of Jensen Huang visiting BeijingNvidia boss Jensen Huang has travelled to China for talks despite limits on the chip company’s sales imposed by the White House under Donald Trump.The visit of Huang, chief executive of one of the US’s most valuable companies, will be closely followed amid the vicious trade war between the US and China.The SFO remains committed to stamping out international bribery wherever it may occur.British companies have a duty to prevent the harm caused by bribery when doing business at home and abroad, to ensure that the UK remains a safe and fair place to do business. Continue reading...

Politics

1 week ago Asian shares fall after a quiet day on Wall St, but Nvidia hit by US ban on exporting AI chip

Markets are mostly lower in Asia after a rare quiet day for financial markets worldwide

Events

1 week ago US tariffs explained: what they are, how they work and who they affect

President Trump’s tariff plan, which included a 10% charge on imports from the UK, has shaken the world’s financial markets

Economics

1 week ago Trump's erratic tariff decisions raise concerns about his mental stability

As Donald Trump's recent tariffs continue to rock the financial markets, concerns have been raised about the US President's 'irrational' behaviour with some even dubbing him 'insane'

Politics

1 week ago Wall Street stock futures rise after temporary US tech tariff exemption

Gains come after two weeks of wild swings in financial markets

Politics

1 week ago Why the 'very tricky' bond market that tripped up Trump could be your port in this tariffs storm... and deliver 7% returns on YOUR savings

What worrying times we are living in, geopolitically and financially. The see-sawing in equity and bond markets we have seen in recent days has yet to abate - despite Trump's partial tariff climbdown.

Economics

2 w. ago ‘A new golden age’: how rightwing media stuck by Trump as global markets collapsed

Trump’s tariffs were sometimes played down, sometimes cheered but rarely seriously questioned by the rightWhile Donald Trump recently instituted and paused hefty tariffs, sparking a trade war and chaos in financial markets, most of the country’s conservative media either applauded the US president or critiqued the policy but not the person behind it, according to journalists and observers of conservative media.Meanwhile, economists, business leaders, Democrats and even some Republicans warned that the tariffs, which prompted the largest American stock market drop since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, could cause a recession. Continue reading...

Politics

2 w. ago ‘Completely out of touch’: golf and dinners for ‘king’ Trump as economy melts down

Casual attitude as markets fall suggests man detached from anxieties of ordinary voters – and surrounded by yes menAfter lighting a fuse under global financial markets, Donald Trump stepped back – all the way to a Florida golf course. A week later, having just caved to pressure to ease his trade tariffs, the US president defended the retreat while hosting racing car champions at the White House.Trump had spent the time in between golfing, dining with donors and making insouciant declarations such as “this is a great time to get rich”, even as the US economy melted down. Continue reading...

Politics

2 w. ago Inside Donald Trump's tariff war and exactly what it means for Brits in 2025

The tariffs rattled traders and investors, with trillions of dollars wiped off financial markets in the aftermath - but what does it mean for UK savings, pensions and mortgages?

Politics

2 w. ago GDP jump offers Rachel Reeves some light as UK enters Trump tariff tunnel

Growth defied forecasts that chancellor had hobbled economy, but trade war casts long shadowUK economy far exceeds forecasts to grow 0.5%Business live – latest updatesEarlier this year Rachel Reeves was being written off for having jeopardised Britain’s economy. The chancellor’s tax-raising autumn budget had sapped business investment, spooked the financial markets and put the jobs market at risk.The latest official figures showing stronger-than-expected economic growth of 0.5% in February will therefore come as a boost for the embattled chancellor, in a sign that the economy was in better health than her critics claimed. Continue reading...

Politics

2 w. ago Peppa Pig caught up in tariff "storm" as merchandise company warns of hit to sales

Character Group said it was withdrawing its market guidance for the financial year ending 31 August.

Events

2 w. ago Trump administration accused of ‘market manipulation’ after 90

President’s move to suspend levies sends financial markets soaring as White House and conservative allies attempt to spin climbdown as brilliant manoeuvre by master dealmaker

Politics