Alberta's Finance Minister, Nate Horner, faces significant challenges as he prepares the 2025-26 provincial budget amid potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian oil exports. These tariffs, described as the "elephant in the room," could impact exports, royalty revenues, employment, taxes, and economic growth. Economists warn of a possible two-percentage-point reduction in Alberta's economic growth, job losses of 20,000 to 30,000 over two years, and even a budget deficit if the tariffs are implemented. Despite these risks, Alberta's economy is supported by healthy oil prices and projected population growth.