1 week ago Is a US recession on the horizon amid Trump’s tariffs? | Jeffrey Frankel

Expectations that the Fed will cut short-term interest rates and falling consumer confidence could indicate what is aheadImagine you are sailing a ship through dense fog, looking out for land. Your lookout spots species of birds typically found offshore. It now seems likely that you are approaching land, but it is impossible to know for sure until you see the coastline. If a US recession is land, the “birds” are already swooping into view. But these sightings offer no guarantees of what lies ahead, only probabilities.An inverted yield curve, when the long-term interest rate falls to or below the short-term rate, is commonly considered to be a predictor of recession. The 10-year bond rate did fall below the three-month Treasury rate in March, although the two are now at about the same level. In any case, the yield curve does not actually tell us much. It simply reflects financial market expectations that the US Federal Reserve might cut short-term interest rates in the future, which ...

Politics

1 week ago Clothing giant Next looks set to be given green light for Dumfries return

A planning hurdle preventing the firm from setting up shop at Cuckoo Bridge Retail Park could be removed next week.

Politics

3 w. ago Horse and rider plunge through bridge as gaping hole opens beneath them in Scots park

A hole opened up in a bridge in a Scots country park as a horse and its rider plummet.

Politics

3 w. ago Hotel guests can bag free food and drinks all day with this little

David Haines, concierge at Park Plaza Westminster Bridge, revealed a little-known hack that allows non-guests to indulge in free food and drink all day at chain hotels from just £25 per person. 

Society

3 w. ago ‘Magical realism’: how a fake Hindu nation tried to take over Indigenous land in Bolivia

Contracts show fictional country created by fugitive Indian guru would control vast swathes ‘with full sovereignty’Followers of a fugitive Indian Hindu guru on a mission to establish his own state are popping up across Latin America, offering hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy land in Ecuador, Paraguay and now Bolivia.At the end of last year, a representative of the Baure Indigenous people in the Bolivian Amazon signed a “perpetual” contract leasing 60,000 hectares (148,260 acres) of their vast rainforest for $108,000 (£81,910) a year. Continue reading...

Politics

3 w. ago Kirkcudbright businessman offers use of land for parking during bridge closure

Jack Finlay of KBT Storage says he is happy to provide land where people can park their cars and walk across the bridge.

Politics

4 w. ago Huge 'deliberate' wildfire leaves trail of devastation after threatening homes

Six fire crews dealt with the 'deliberate' blaze near Bryngarw Country Park in Bridgend and stopped it spreading to nearby properties and a children's home

Events