56 h. ago Companies are leaving more jobs unfilled as economic worries hit pause on corporate spending

Trump’s global trade war continues to cause concern about a potential recession

Economics

64 h. ago The Guardian view on Trump’s shock therapy: warehouse and transport workers are the first victims of a class war | Editorial

Behind the slogans and tariffs lies a calculated strategy – fuelled by elite interests, eroding labour rights and stoking global recessionThe White House, eager to win a trade war it barely understands, has yanked the emergency brake on China-US trade without checking who’s inside the vehicle. Donald Trump’s early April trade decree has taken a month to hit the economy – that’s how long Chinese containers need to reach Los Angeles. And on cue, US pacific ports registered a 45% drop in container bookings this week from China. When warehouses fall quiet and trucks idle in California, the silence will creep eastward. Unemployment will surely tick upwards.Even if Washington reverses course by the end of May, and Beijing plays nice, the best-case scenario is delayed damage. Some goods are being rerouted to avoid charges, but you can’t reboot global logistics overnight. This isn’t strategic decoupling – it’s economic self-harm. By the time the Trump administration notices, it will be too ...

Events

7 d. ago World's biggest hedge fund boss warns it's 'too late' to fix Trump's tariff damage

A hedge fund manager, who previously joined a chorus of analysts correctly warning about the 2008 great recession, is speaking out again.

Events

9 d. ago Donald Trump's 100 days of disaster as second term places world in recession, ruin and rebellion

Diplomatic ties are fraying, global markets are tanking, and fears of a catastrophic recession are mounting as the US leader barrels ahead with a reckless agenda after only 100 days in office

Politics

2 w. ago Rachel Reeves says US trip about more than 'damage limitation' as she signals UK could lower import levies on American cars in bid for trade deal with Donald Trump

The Chancellor is in Washington for IMF meetings and talks with other G20 finance ministers to discuss the impact of the US president on global commerce.

Politics

2 w. ago Trump’s tariffs spark global recession fears as White House hints at trade deal with China: Live updates

The International Monetary Fund downgraded growth in nearly all countries amid ongoing uncertainty from the Trump administration’s trade policy

Economics

2 w. ago Trump’s tariffs raise chances of U.S. and global recession to ‘almost 100%’, economist warns: Live updates

The International Monetary Fund downgraded growth in nearly all countries amid ongoing uncertainty from the Trump administration’s trade policy

Events

3 w. ago Global fund managers warn of accelerating risk of recession in key survey

Net “recession is coming” score is the 4th highest in the past 20 years of the BoA survey.

Events

3 w. ago Rightwing populists will keep winning until we grasp this truth about human nature | George Monbiot

Economic inequality breeds resentment and a desire to get even. That’s what fuels support for even incompetent regimes“He’s really gone and done it this time. Now everyone can see what a disaster he is.” How many times have we heard this about Donald Trump? And how many times has it been proved wrong? Well, maybe this time he really has overstepped. After all, his clowning around with tariffs, sparking trade wars, then suddenly reversing his position, could provoke a global recession, perhaps even a depression. Surely his supporters will disown him? But I’m not banking on it, and this is why.Already, Trump has waged war on everything that builds prosperity and wellbeing: democracy, healthy ecosystems, education, healthcare, science, the arts. Yet, amid the wreckage, and despite some slippage, his approval ratings still hold between 43 and 48%: far higher than those of many other leaders. Why? I believe part of the answer lies in a fundamental aspect of our humanity: the urge to dest...

Politics

3 w. ago ‘The damage is done’: Why Trump’s tariff pause has not stopped the risk of global recession

Even with a 90-day halt on aggressive tariff hikes, leading economists say uncertainty has already caused considerable harm

Events

3 w. ago Will global climate action be a casualty of Trump’s tariffs?

Clean energy investors likely to pull back from US, but other countries may seize opportunity to speed transitionDonald Trump’s upending of the global economy has raised fears that climate action could emerge as a casualty of the trade war.In the week that has followed “liberation day”, economic experts have warned that the swathe of tariffs could trigger a global economic recession, with far-reaching consequences for investors – including those behind the green energy projects needed to meet climate goals. Continue reading...

Politics

3 w. ago ‘The damage is done’: Why the risk of global recession remains despite Trump’s tariff pause

Even with a 90-day pause on aggressive tariff hikes, leading economists say global damage has already been done thanks to ongoing uncertainty

Events

3 w. ago What is a recession? Gordon Brown warns Trump is pushing the world towards recession

‘No more than a narrow window of opportunity remains if we are to prevent an unnecessary global recession,’ warns former prime minister

Events

4 w. ago Trump is pushing the world into recession. By learning the lessons of 2008, we can still prevent it | Gordon Brown

As I discovered then, global problems need international responses. By working together, we can protect jobs and living standardsThis is the first in a two part series on the global response to Donald Trump’s tariffsNo more than a narrow window of opportunity remains if we are to prevent an unnecessary global recession. As China and the US decouple, disruptive trade wars are intensifying and threaten to descend into currency wars; import, export, investment and technology bans; and financial fire sales that will destroy millions of jobs worldwide. It seems barely credible that the world is being brought to its knees by one economy, outside of which live 96% of the population, who produce 84% of the world’s manufactured goods. But even though US officials have previously talked of a tariff policy of “escalate to de-escalate”, Donald Trump’s aim is to force manufacturing back to the US, and his 90-day relaxation of some tariffs does not mean he intends to defuse the crisis.On Monday, ...

Politics

4 w. ago Trump is pushing the world towards recession. By learning the lessons of 2008, we can still prevent it | Gordon Brown

As I discovered then, global problems need international responses. By working together, we can protect jobs and living standardsThis is the first in a two part series on the global response to Donald Trump’s tariffsNo more than a narrow window of opportunity remains if we are to prevent an unnecessary global recession. As China and the US decouple, disruptive trade wars are intensifying and threaten to descend into currency wars; import, export, investment and technology bans; and financial fire sales that will destroy millions of jobs worldwide. It seems barely credible that the world is being brought to its knees by one economy, outside of which live 96% of the population, who produce 84% of the world’s manufactured goods. But even though US officials have previously talked of a tariff policy of “escalate to de-escalate”, Donald Trump’s aim is to force manufacturing back to the US, and his 90-day relaxation of some tariffs does not mean he intends to defuse the crisis.On Monday, ...

Politics

4 w. ago Trump pauses plans to hike US tariffs on most countries except China

Trump says he will raise US tariffs on Chinese exports to 125% and unveils 90-day pause for other countriesBusiness live – latest updatesDonald Trump shelved plans to hike tariffs on most countries except China, unveiling a 90-day pause and pulling back from his global trade war after days of market turmoil and warnings of recession.After insisting for days that he would hold firm on his aggressive trade strategy, Trump announced that all countries that had not retaliated against US tariffs would receive a reprieve – and only face a blanket US tariff of 10% – until July.Never miss global breaking news. Download our free app to keep up with key stories in real time. Continue reading...

Politics

4 w. ago Petrol to fall below 130p a litre within days as Trump tariffs cause oil price to plunge

Fears that Trump's new trade tariffs could trigger a global recession has sent oil prices plummeting - and drivers will benefit at the pumps.

Politics

4 w. ago Donald Trump will learn 'China will not blink' in fighting 'total war' against global tariffs

Experts believe that Donald Trump's decision could lead to a global recession unless the "deals" he's so keen to make are arranged quickly, after the stock market went into freefall following him slapping tariffs on every country in the world

Politics

4 w. ago Will Trump’s tariffs tip the world into recession? – podcast

As countries reel from the Trump tariffs, can a global recession still be avoided? Richard Partington reportsJust after midnight on Tuesday, EDT time, the wall of tariffs Donald Trump announced last week came into effect. The new system upends decades of precedent from the world’s strongest economy and has sent global markets reeling.The Guardian’s senior economics correspondent, Richard Partington, explains to Michael Safi the dynamics of a market crash and a trade war and how together they may contribute to the onset of a global recession. However, as he makes clear, the world is not yet in that worst-case scenario and steps can still be taken to minimise the risk. Continue reading...

Economics

last month How ‘liberation day’ rout compares with other notorious stock market crises

A swift loss of £4tn from global stock markets has led some to liken Trump’s trade war to 1929 Wall Street crashBusiness live – latest updatesDonald Trump’s escalating trade war has plunged global financial markets into the steepest rout since the spread of the Covid pandemic five years ago.Drawing parallels with the 1929 Wall Street crash and the ensuing 1930s Great Depression, the US president’s “liberation day” tariff plan has led to warnings of a global recession from leading economists. Continue reading...

Politics