1 week ago Thames Water CEO says crisis ‘decades in the making’; Goldman Sachs cuts US recession odds – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsUK pub chain Marston’s has swung back to a profit in the first half of its financial year, thanks to a busy Christmas and Mother’s Day, as well as a tighter focus on costs.The pub owner reported a pre-tax profit of £19m in the 26 weeks ended on 29 March, compared with a loss of £0.2m in the comparable period in 2024.Their revised forecast reflects a combination of a lower effective tariff rate and the recent easing of financial conditions.We raise our S&P 500 return and earnings forecasts to incorporate lower tariff rates, better economic growth, and less recession risk than we previously expected. Our new 3- and 12-month returns forecasts are +1% and +11%, indicating levels of 5900 and 6500 (previously 5700 and 6200). Continue reading...

Economics

1 week ago US and China agree deal to slash tariffs for 90 days as superpowers lay down economic arms

The United States and China have agreed a deal to slash reciprocal tariffs as Washington and Beijing seek to end a trade war that has sparked fears of a global economic recession, officials announced on Monday.

Economics

2 w. ago Trump blows off trade war recession fears: ‘Everything’s ok’

President says U.S. economy will undergo ‘transition period’

Politics

3 w. ago U.S. economy shrinks for first time in three years as Trump’s tariffs spark trade war fears

The American economy shrank by 0.3 percent during the first quarter of this year, marking the first drop in three years as President Donald Trump’s tariff policies disrupted businesses and their supply chains.

Politics

3 w. ago US GDP report to show if economy expanded in last quarter, after eurozone growth accelerates – business live

First estimate of US GDP for Q1 2025 will show whether tariffs hurt growthUK house prices fall but market ‘likely to pick up’ during summerChina manufacturing activity plummets amid Trump tariff warFrance’s economy is likely to “flirt with stagnation” throughout the year, despite the small rebound in GDP in the last quarter, predicts Dutch bank ING.Charlotte de Montpellier, ING’s senior economist for France and Switzerland, explains:The additional customs duties in the US and their direct and indirect impact will delay the French economy’s rebound. We estimate that the direct effect of a permanent 10% import duty in the US on French GDP (via a reduction in exports) will be around -0.1%.Adding to this are the effects of uncertainty, the global economic slowdown and more restrictive fiscal policy, all of which will weigh on French economic activity throughout the year. The cooling in the labour market is likely to limit the recovery in household consumption, and the savings rate is se...

Economics

3 w. ago France and Germany avoid recession as eurozone growth accelerates; Taiwan’s GDP boosted by pre

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including growth figures from across EuropeUK house prices fall but market ‘likely to pick up’ during summerChina manufacturing activity plummets amid Trump tariff warFrance’s economy is likely to “flirt with stagnation” throughout the year, despite the small rebound in GDP in the last quarter, predicts Dutch bank ING.Charlotte de Montpellier, ING’s senior economist for France and Switzerland, explains:The additional customs duties in the US and their direct and indirect impact will delay the French economy’s rebound. We estimate that the direct effect of a permanent 10% import duty in the US on French GDP (via a reduction in exports) will be around -0.1%.Adding to this are the effects of uncertainty, the global economic slowdown and more restrictive fiscal policy, all of which will weigh on French economic activity throughout the year. The cooling in the labour market is likely to limit the recovery in household consumptio...

Politics

3 w. ago France and Germany avoid recession as economies return to growth; UK house prices drop – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including growth figures from across EuropeUK house prices fall but market ‘likely to pick up’ during summerChina manufacturing activity plummets amid Trump tariff warFrance’s economy is likely to “flirt with stagnation” throughout the year, despite the small rebound in GDP in the last quarter, predicts Dutch bank ING.Charlotte de Montpellier, ING’s senior economist for France and Switzerland, explains:The additional customs duties in the US and their direct and indirect impact will delay the French economy’s rebound. We estimate that the direct effect of a permanent 10% import duty in the US on French GDP (via a reduction in exports) will be around -0.1%.Adding to this are the effects of uncertainty, the global economic slowdown and more restrictive fiscal policy, all of which will weigh on French economic activity throughout the year. The cooling in the labour market is likely to limit the recovery in household consumptio...

Economics

3 w. ago France avoids recession as economy returns to growth; UK house prices drop – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsChina manufacturing activity plummets amid Trump tariff warAverage UK house prices fell this month, lender Nationwide reports, after the rush to avoid an increase in stamp duty faded.According to Nationwide, house prices fell by 0.6% in April, with the average price dropping to £270,752 from £271,316 in March.Early indications suggest there was a significant jump in transactions in March, with buyers bringing forward their purchases to avoid additional tax obligations.“The market is likely to remain a little soft in the coming months, following the pattern typically observed following the end of stamp duty holidays. Nevertheless, activity is likely to pick up steadily as summer progresses, despite wider economic uncertainties in the global economy, since underlying conditions for potential home buyers in the UK remain supportive. Continue reading...

Economics

4 w. ago Trade war fears trigger biggest slide in US consumer expectations since 1990 recession – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsXi announces plan for Chinese economy to counter impact of US trade warEuropean stock markets are rising this morning, amid hopes that China is relaxing some of its tariffs.In London, the FTSE 100 index is up 12 points or 0.13%, at 8417 points. Engineering companies are among the top risers, with aerospare manufacturers Melrose up 3.6%, and Rolls-Royce up 2%, after Safran reported that tariffs on aircraft parts have been lifted.“We learned last night that China has taken the decision not to tax engines or landing gear or nacelles - in other words a certain number of aerospace equipment parts.”“It demonstrates that the situation is very fluid.” Continue reading...

Economics

4 w. ago US trade war fears drive UK consumer confidence down to record low; Tesla’s European sales fall again – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsDonald Trump’s tariffs will make it harder for Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s car division, Ineos Automotive, to reach its first profit.Ineos Automotive’s CEO, Lynn Calder, told Bloomberg that the US president’s 25% tariff on foreign cars will make it harder to hit the earnings target.“For sure, this last week has put a dent in that and, for sure, delayed it,”“We’re stubborn as mules. We’re not easy to knock down.”“With fieldwork completed just days after Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, it is unsurprising that consumer expectations for the economy plummeted to a record low. The original tariff schedule, since reduced for most countries, was expected to reduce growth in the UK and elsewhere. Yet despite this economic pessimism, expectations of retail spending rose slightly as the prospect of Easter shopping drew closer.The state of the economy dropped significantly to -48 in April, down from -35 in March.Their personal financial...

Economics