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The Bond Market’s Trump Trade Is Looking Like a Recession Trade

Bond traders are signaling an increasing risk that the US economy will stall as President Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff rollouts and federal-workforce cuts threaten to further restrain the pace of growth.



Initially, investors anticipated Trump's policies would stimulate growth and raise Treasury yields. However, due to factors like trade wars and potential federal-workforce cuts, the bond market now signals increasing recession risks, with traders anticipating Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

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