2 h. ago Reeves to touch down in Washington after IMF warns of rising UK inflation

The Chancellor is to champion Britain as a place where investors and businesses can count on economic stability during meetings in Washington DC.

Events

5 h. ago The Guardian view on the IMF’s warning: Britain’s economy runs hot for profits, cold for pay | Editorial

Labour is misreading the economics – leaving it unable to deal with the G7’s worst inflation and flat living standardBloomberg’s headline said it all: “UK Faces Worst G-7 Inflation and Flat Living Standards, IMF Says”. The International Monetary Fund warns that inflation will be higher in the UK than in any other major advanced economy – including in the US, where Donald Trump’s tariffs are driving up costs for American consumers. This while GDP growth per head crawls at 0.4%, the weakest of any major economy. Real wages have stagnated for 11 months. Meanwhile, official figures show that unemployment has climbed to 4.8%, the highest since spring 2021. Forget talk of Britain’s “upgraded growth”; the economy, under Labour, is running hot only for those collecting profits.The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) projects that by 2029 average disposable incomes will be £570 lower than today, a fall of 1.3% – the sharpest drop in living standards since records began in 1961. This isn’t a sim...

Events

5 h. ago The Guardian view on the rising risk from flooding: uninsurable buildings should focus minds on climate adaptation | Editorial

The bleak future faced by one small town offers a cautionary tale about the threat from global heatingThe bleak prospect facing the market town of Tenbury Wells in Worcestershire, due to rising flood risks, is first and foremost a problem for locals. After seven floods in four years, and with plans for new flood defences around the town abandoned after costs rose to £30m, the town council announced this month that three buildings it owns, including a theatre and historic pump rooms, no longer have insurance. Independent retailers are in a similar situation, and some are packing up as a result. The number of empty properties is growing.Tenbury is at higher risk than most places from floods, due to its low-lying position between the River Teme and Kyre Brook. But the threat it faces is not unique, and will become more common in future. Last year UK insurers paid out a record £585m for weather-related damage to homes and possessions, after unusually s...

Events

9 h. ago The true cost of Labour: Britain faces highest inflation in G7 but lags behind on growth, warns IMF... while unemployment hits a four

In a setback for Rachel Reeves ahead of the Budget next month, the global watchdog forecast UK inflation of 3.4 per cent this year and 2.5 per cent in 2026.

Events

10 h. ago UK inflation to rise to highest in G7, warns IMF as food costs surge

It came as the IMF increased its UK growth forecast for this year but reduced its prediction for 2026 amid concerns over the labour market.

Events

10 h. ago World economy resilient amid Trump tariffs but outlook looks ‘dim’, says IMF

UK and global GDP growth forecasts upgraded for this year but immigration controls could have negative impact Business live – latest updatesThe global economy has shown “unexpected resilience” in the face of Donald Trump’s tariffs, but the full impact is yet to be felt, and outlook for growth remains “dim”, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.As policymakers gather in Washington for its annual meetings, the IMF has upgraded its forecast for global GDP growth this year to 3.2%, from 3% at its last update in July. Next year’s global forecast is unchanged, at 3.1%. Continue reading...

Politics

10 h. ago Brits will suffer highest inflation of the world's biggest economies, IMF warns

The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its forecast for the UK economy this year, but says inflation will be higher than it thought

Events

29 h. ago The Guardian view on peace in Gaza: the relief is real, but Trump’s promise of a ‘golden age’ rings hollow | Editorial

Hostage and prisoner releases are bringing joy to families. But there is no guarantee that the ceasefire will end Palestinian sufferingThe reprieve brought by the end of fighting in Gaza is immense. In Israel, the release of the living hostages has led to widespread elation. In Gaza and the West Bank there are also celebrations, as up to 2,000 Palestinian detainees start to be released – though there is distress, too, due to uncertainty about who is being freed and where they will be sent. In northern Gaza, people can finally return to dig through rubble for the remains of an estimated 10,000 missing people.As recently as three weeks ago, the likelihood of a ceasefire appeared remote. But it has taken effect, and on Monday Donald Trump travelled from Jerusalem, where he was cheered in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he joined a high-powered peace summit of more than 20 world leaders, including Sir Keir Starmer. The plan for peace begun there is due to be c...

Politics

29 h. ago The Guardian view on the online scam industry: authorities must not forget that perpetrators are often victims too | Editorial

A lucrative sector is spreading fast as criminal enterprises force abused and trafficked workers to cheat othersA Chinese court last month sentenced 11 people to death over their roles in a illegal scam empire along the border with Myanmar. But it won’t end a noxious multibillion-dollar industry that devastates the lives of two sets of victims. The first are those cheated out of money, often by people posing as potential romantic or business partners in what are known as “pig‑butchering” schemes. The second are those who are forced to cheat them, working in conditions amounting to modern slavery.The recent study, Scam: Inside Southeast Asia’s Cybercrime Compounds, by Ivan Franceschini, Ling Li and Mark Bo, paints a terrifying picture of the sector. Workers are trafficked into heavily guarded, prison-like compounds, where they are routinely abused and tortured for failing to meet targets, or extorted for ransoms. Others take the jobs willingly, but find that they cannot repay ru...

Events

54 h. ago The Guardian view on gen Z protests: these movements share more than an interest in anime | Editorial

A new global wave of unrest is unfolding, driven by generational discontents and taking cues from each otherAfter a quarter-century of existence, the global triumph of Monkey D Luffy – a fresh-faced and rubber-bodied pirate captain – had seemed almost complete. The One Piece manga series, of which he is the freedom-fighting hero, had become the bestselling of all time, with more than 500m copies bought. The anime was a similar hit, with viewers immersing themselves in over a thousand episodes following his struggle against the World Government, a corrupt and tyrannical oligarchy.Yet Luffy has now found a new lease of life as inspiration to protesters in a wave of youthful unrest across continents. His crew’s flag – a skull and crossbones crowned with his jaunty straw hat – has appeared from Morocco to Madagascar in recent days. Indonesians enthusiastically adopted it this summer, in a riposte to the president’s urging to fly the national standard. Officials were so alarmed that...

Events

61 h. ago The IMF boss is right to say ‘buckle up’ – the global economy is facing multiple menaces

Trump’s latest tariff tantrum and rising fears of an AI bubble have very quickly borne out Kristina Georgieva’s claim that ‘uncertainty is the new normal’Trump threatens 100% tariffs as Beijing restricts rare-earth exportsLittle more than 48 hours passed last week between IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva’s warning that “uncertainty is the new normal” and Donald Trump’s latest tariff onslaught – this time aimed at China.Markets plunged on Friday after Trump threatened to levy punitive additional tariffs of 100% on Chinese goods in retaliation for Beijing’s blocks on exports of rare earth minerals. Continue reading...

Economics

4 d. ago The Guardian view on an AI bubble: capitalism still hasn’t evolved to protect itself | Editorial

Warnings about inflated tech stocks suggest investors never learn and central bankers learn too lateThe message from global regulators this week was blunt: the AI boom is driving stocks to dotcom-bubble highs – and the world is finally listening. With so much cash riding on so few firms, any loss of faith could send shares tumbling and drag down the wider economy. China’s proposed export controls on rare earths add a fresh threat: not just to sentiment, but to advanced chip supply chains themselves. It’s a long way down from such dizzying heights if gravity reasserts itself.Warnings from the past abound in Charles Kindleberger’s history of financial crises, Manias, Panics and Crashes, which begins with tulip mania in 1636. What commonly happens, he wrote, is “that some event changes the economic outlook. New opportunities for profits are seized, and overdone.” Once the mistake is realised, there’s a panicked exit with a crash in the price of “whatever has been the subject of the man...

Politics

4 d. ago The Guardian view on AC Milan playing a ‘home’ game in Perth: the clue should be in the name | Editorial

Famous European football clubs should not be shunted around the globe in search of sports promoters with deep pocketsFootball clubs are community assets, possessing a value, history and meaning which cannot be captured on a balance sheet. They belong to the cities and towns that have sustained them over the decades. For the vast majority of supporters, the sense of identity and matchgoing rituals associated with following their team are worth as much as the occasional trophy or glorious victory.That culture becomes harder to maintain, however, if your club’s next game is taking place 5,000 miles away. European football’s governing body, Uefa, this week announced that it will allow a Spanish league fixture between Villarreal and Barcelona to take place closer to Cuba than Catalonia, in Miami’s Hard Rock stadium. This will be followed, in February, by the relocation to Australia of an Italian Serie A match between Milan and Como. Global sports promoters, rubbing their hands ...

Politics

5 d. ago The Guardian view on Trump and the ceasefire deal: hope at last, but the real work is just beginning | Editorial

This is the best prospect of ending Israel’s war in Gaza since it began. But a long-term solution remains distantDonald Trump called the pause in hostilities he has brokered the first step to a “strong, durable and everlasting peace”. No one can do more to determine the outcome than the US president. This was, for him, a modest statement, acknowledging that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of his plan – it being their decision, not his, to break a multi-point agreement into a multi-stage discussion. Two parties so far apart agreed on one thing: both would rather defer the really difficult issues.In Israel and Gaza, there was joy – however tentative – at the announcement. An end to the annihilation, the release of all hostages and the resumption of large-scale aid have all been desperately needed. There is every reason to fear that this will not lead to a lasting peace, and every reason to strive to ensure that it does. In finally reining in Benjamin Netanyahu, and...

Economics

5 d. ago A woman's place WAS NOT in the home: Female workers in 17th century Britain played a critical role in the economy, researchers conclude

Far from being just housewives, women contributed to all the most important areas of the economy, such as agriculture, commerce, and care, research has found.

Economics

5 d. ago Is the AI bubble about to burst? JP Morgan boss joins dire warnings from BoE and IMF about risk of stock market crunch

JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon said he was 'far more worried than others' about the risk of a serious correction.

Events

6 d. ago IMF chief warns of economic uncertainty and offers this advice: 'Buckle up'

The global economy may be holding up better than expected despite major shocks such as President Donald Trump’s tariffs, but the head of the International Monetary Fund says that resilience may not last

Events

6 d. ago IMF chief warns ‘uncertainty is the new normal’ in global economy

Kristalina Georgieva outlines mounting risks to economic stability before fund’s annual meetings next weekBank of England warns of growing risk that AI bubble could burstGold price tops $4,000 for first time as investors seek safe havenThe head of the International Monetary Fund has issued a stark warning about the mounting risks facing the global economy, saying: “Buckle up: uncertainty is the new normal.”As finance ministers and central bankers prepare to meet in Washington for the IMF’s annual meetings next week, its managing director, Kristalina Georgieva said the world economy had shown surprising resilience in the face of Donald Trump’s trade war. Continue reading...

Events

6 d. ago IMF and BoE warn AI boom risks ‘abrupt’ stock market correction

Kristalina Georgieva and UK financial stability watchdog say valuations are closing in on dotcom bubble levels

Events

6 d. ago Bank of England warns of risk of AI market correction; gold hits new $4,000 an ounce record – business live

Soaring tech valuations could drop amid potentially ‘disappointing’ progress on AI, central bank says; gold has doubled in two years and extends 50% rally so far this yearPeter Hargreaves, the billionaire co-founder of Hargreaves Lansdown, is retiring from the UK’s largest personal investment site, seven months after its £5.4bn acquisition by private equity firms. Hargreaves, 79, who set up the business in 1981 in the back bedroom of his house in Clifton with Stephen Lansdown, is handing his board position to his son Robert and said this “marks a proud new chapter in the family legacy”. His firm pioneered “DIY” investments, allowing people to invest directly in shares via its website without costly financial advisers.The Bristol-based company said he had rejoined the board earlier this year to “provide continuity and support through a period of change” following its takeover by a private equity consortium of Jersey-based buyout giant CVC Capital Partners, Sweden’s Nordic Capital and...

Events