Scientists are closely monitoring 2024 YR4 – and while it’s relatively small, it reminds us of the dangers lurking in spaceCarrie Nugent is an associate professor of computational physics and planetary science and author of Asteroid HuntersTwo days after Christmas, the Atlas sky survey team discovered a new rocky object in Earth’s astronomical neighbourhood. Atlas discovers near-Earth objects all the time: in 2024, the team discovered 167 of them. They also codiscovered comet Tsuchinshan–Atlas, which dazzled sky gazers last autumn. But this discovery was special: there’s a chance the 40-90 metre object, known as 2024 YR4, will hit Earth in 2032.In January, the impact probability was estimated to be just over 1%, then it was raised to 2.3% in early February. As of this week, the Nasa JPL Center for Near Earth Object Studies has raised that to 3.1% – or about 1-in-32 chance of impact. Continue reading...
Scientists are monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, a 40-90 metre object with a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in December 2032. Carrie Nugent, an asteroid expert, outlines four reasons not to panic: 1) Time remains to prepare, 2) The asteroid is small compared to catastrophic ones, 3) Earth's surface is mostly water, reducing potential harm, and 4) Further data collection may lower the impact probability as more observations refine its trajectory.
