Chances of a collision have been repeatedly revised upwards but have now started to fall – but it may still hit the Moon
Asteroid 2024 YR4, which recently flew past Earth, is now expected to miss the planet, according to scientists. While earlier estimates suggested a 3.1% chance of collision, revised calculations have significantly reduced the likelihood of an Earth impact. However, there remains a small chance the asteroid could strike the Moon. The asteroid's potential path had raised concerns about severe damage to populated areas, but updated data from NASA and the European Space Agency indicate Earth is now outside the asteroid's uncertainty window.
